Has defeat at the polls deterred Chávez?

By Marifeli Pérez-Stable
The Miami Herald, January 31, 2008

Hugo Chávez is all over the place. One day, he's basking in the release of two Colombian women held hostage by the FARC for years. The next he's asking Alvaro Uribe's government to grace the narcoguerrillas with ''belligerent status,'' a nonstarter if there ever was one. A few days later, he's sounding the alarm on an imminent aggression from Colombia.

At home, Venezuela's president is also perambulant. ''Review, rectification and relaunch'' are his new-found callings. Cabinet reshuffles, an amnesty to political opponents and a belated recognition of the business sector as ''part of the nation'' suggest nascent steps toward moderation.

At the same time, Chávez has hinted at a possible recall referendum in 2010 along with a constitutional amendment on indefinite reelection. Then again, he might ask the National Assembly -- mostly in his grip -- to enact such an amendment. Never mind that the Assembly can only make minor constitutional changes, and indefinite reelection doesn't qualify.

Chávez is still smarting from the Dec. 2 No vote, which citizens cast largely to keep him from a lifetime presidency. He'd grown so accustomed to winning elections that he never countenanced losing. After berating the three million citizens who voted for him in the 2006 presidential election but failed to show up at the polls two months ago, Chávez appears to have taken some stock of his defeat.

Appearances, however, can be deceiving. Are his cabinet changes a move from radicalism to moderation? Maybe. Yet, might not competence be a better litmus test? The new ministers best the old ones, which isn't saying much. There is, moreover, no indication of a willingness to change at least some stripes to address the concerns that kept three million erstwhile Chavistas from the polls on Dec. 2: inflation, insecurity and corruption.

Take inflation. With price controls in effect, Chávez recently announced an increase in milk prices to spur production. Concurrently, he threatened producers with confiscation if output doesn't rise or if they export milk to reap better prices. Price controls without an expiration date spell inflation and, consequently, disaster. If there's a serious reconsideration of Chavismo's macroeconomic policy going on, it's a well-kept secret.

Similarly, the amnesty -- in principle, laudable -- is mostly smoke and mirrors since it doesn't apply to political opponents who live abroad or to those responsible for the deaths that occurred during the failed coup of April 2, 2002. Yet, a 1994 amnesty pardoned and freed Chávez and his cohorts, even though their attempts to overthrow the government in 1992 resulted in even more fatalities.

Chávez, no doubt, faces serious challenges. The No brought to the fore tensions within Chavismo which will not be easily reconciled. Can those who want to advance the ''revolution'' as if Dec. 2 never happened and those who want to consolidate and regroup before moving forward find middle ground? Will local and regional Chavistas now be emboldened to assert their independence from Chávez?

Though hardly out, Chávez has lost the aura of invincibility that had bolstered his leadership. If, indeed, he's to leave the presidency in 2013, Chávez's powers of persuasion will quickly diminish.

His supporters, for example, may be tempted to fend for themselves in October's municipal and regional elections. Even if Chavistas win most contests, Chavismo will not likely have the stranglehold it has today which is tantamount to a loss.

Until Dec. 2, the ni-ni sector -- citizens who are neither with the government nor the opposition -- largely broke for Chávez at the polls. To win them back, Chavismo would have to quickly metamorphose into social democracy. One in a million, I'd say. False alarms about a war with Colombia and recalcitrant insistence on indefinite reelection confirm No voters of the rightfulness of their choice.

On Jan. 23, eight opposition parties agreed to field unity candidates in October. Podemos -- a party formerly allied with the government -- will put forward its own slates. Two other parties once supportive of Chávez will likewise unite for those elections. Good news, indeed. Still, we shouldn't forget that Dec. 2 was Chávez's to lose, and he did. The opposition has yet to win.