'Lula' should show leadership to end the crisis

By Michael Shifter
Cambio (Colombia), March 5, 2008

While the prospect of interstate war is clearly ominous and unnerving, there is some good news buried in the chain of events unfolding in the Andes. The regional community has showed utmost concern for a possible military cross-border conflict in the Andes. There have been many welcome calls for calm and restraint. In addition, the heightened tensions have revealed that the three countries are profoundly interconnected in many ways, which helps prevent worst-case scenarios. Everyone seems to recognize that if the situation gets out of control, the consequences would be disastrous for all.

Still, the clash between national sovereignty, on the one hand, and self-defense and the fight against terrorism on the other, has stirred intense passions. Colombian public opinion has understandably been largely supportive of the Uribe government’s decision to go after the FARC refuge in northern Ecuador. Although President Correa failed to express any concern about the FARC using Ecuador as a sanctuary, it should also come as no surprise that he has been backed by most Ecuadorans, whose sense of nationalism has been aroused. Chavez’s characteristically excessive and irate response to Colombia’s raid seemed misplaced (after all, it took place in Ecuador, not Venezuela!) and was likely more of a warning directed toward the United States.

Leaders who are normally on friendly terms with Uribe – including Felipe Calderón of Mexico, Alan Garcia of Peru and Michelle Bachelet of Chile – have condemned the cross-border action against the FARC as a violation of sovereignty. But any criticisms raised by Colombia’s neighbors should not be seen as being indifferent to fighting terrorism or denying the right to self-defense. Rather, they should be viewed as a move to publicly reaffirm the principle of sovereignty. Hopefully, this principle will not be applied selectively, and the hemispheric community will recognize the FARC’s own chronic violation of sovereignty.

In addition, demands by regional leaders for apologies from the Uribe government may actually help Colombia to moderate Chavez, always a difficult challenge. Having taken a firm stand on the question of sovereignty, other governments may now be in a better position to apply pressure on Chavez to behave in accordance with international norms and end whatever association he has with the FARC.

Indeed, while both Uribe and Correa have benefited politically within Colombia and Ecuador, it is not clear that Chavez has fared as well. Whatever Chavez’s own sympathies, happily there is very little support for the FARC in Venezuela, even among Chavez backers, and even less within the armed forces. If Chavez goes too far in backing of the guerrillas, he risks further weakening an already shaky domestic and regional position.

It will be tough for Colombia alone to keep him under control and improve relations in the current environment. In contrast, with Correa there are greater possibilities to overcome differences, even after the recent rupture in the bilateral relationship. Before this incident, it seemed that important progress was being made in dealing with the drug question. Unlike Chavez, Correa does not appear to have huge regional ambitions, and Colombia’s ties to the United States are not nearly as problematic for him as they are for Chavez. In the heat of passion, it is easy to put all governments in the same category, but the distinction between Chavez and Correa is crucial.

The Organization of American States under the leadership of Jose Miguel Insulza has played a key role, acting quickly to convene an emergency meeting that helped channel tensions from military to diplomatic options, such as a fact-finding mission or mediation. Several countries have offered assistance, but Brazil may be in the best position to help defuse tensions in the region and get relations back on track. The Lula administration has legitimacy in the eyes of the Uribe, Correa and Chavez governments, and it is appropriately sensitive to the principles involved. As an increasingly important regional power, Brazil can and should respond constructively to an unprecedented South American crisis that needs to be resolved.