Change in Cuba?

By Christian Gomez, Jr.
Foreign Policy Digest, March 6, 2008

Published in Foreign Policy Digest

DEVELOPMENTS

On February 19, Fidel Castro, 81, announced his permanent retirement as Cuba's president. At the time of his announcement, Fidel had served as head of state for 49 years, making him the second longest ruling head of state in the world behind Queen Elizabeth.

Fidel had previously turned power over to his brother Raúl Castro, 76, on a provisional basis in July of 2006, when Fidel underwent emergency intestinal surgery. Fidel remains a member of Cuba's National Assembly and First Secretary of the Cuban Communist Party, but he no longer retains an active role in governing Cuba.

On February 24, the Cuban National Assembly formally elected Raúl Castro President of the Council of State and in a surprise move, elected as First Vice-President José Ramón Machado Ventura, 77. Machado Ventura, a physician, had been organizational secretary of the Communist party and is a member of the Politburo. Ramón Ventura's election to Cuba's second in command was a surprise as most Cuba watchers expected either Carlos Lage, 56, or Felipe Pérez Roque, 42, to be named First Vice-President. Machado Ventura has been close to Raúl since the 1950s.

The White House responded to the news by stating that Raúl's election "will make no improvement in the political situation in the country because the old guard remains firmly entrenched."  

BACKGROUND

Cuba lies just 90 miles off the Florida Keys, and its relationship with the United States has been complicated both before and after it gained independence from Spain in 1898. During the 19th century, the U.S, maintained an interest in annexing Cuba for economic reasons. During the Spanish-American War of 1898, the U.S. supported Cuba's bid for independence from Spain, which was made official on May 20, 1902. 

The Platt Amendment of 1901 laid the framework for U.S.-Cuba relations for the next three decades. The amendment's provisions -- which established a U.S. naval base in Cuba and maintained that the US could intervene in Cuban affairs if it deemed necessary, among others -- were built into the Cuban Constitution of 1901. All provisions, except the base at Guantanamo Bay, were repealed in 1934.

The emergence of strongman Fulgencio Batista as leader of the Cuban army and later president for 11 years (1940-1944, 1952-1959), was a time of close cooperation between the U.S. and Cuba. Unfortunately, the Batista years were characterized by high levels of corruption which, along with the significant U.S. influence in Cuban affairs, galvanized a group of 165 young Cubans who unsuccessfully stormed the Moncada barracks in Santiago de Cuba on July 26, 1953. 

The 26th of July Movement was thus born, featuring Fidel Castro as its charismatic leader. His brother Raúl was already second in command; the Argentinean physician Ernesto "Che" Guevara would later join the movement. After being jailed and exiled to México, Fidel consolidated his guerilla army and began a nearly three year insurgency that culminated on January 1, 1959 with the guerilla army's victorious entry into Havana. The Cuban Revolution was triumphant. 

While Fidel's government was initially recognized by President Dwight Eisenhower, Cuba's relations with the U.S. deteriorated when foreign properties were nationalized in the summer of 1960. The Foreign Assistance Act of 1961, passed during the Kennedy administration, established a "total embargo on all trade" to Cuba, which essentially remains in place today. The failed Bay of Pigs invasion by a group of Cuban exiles in 1961 and the Cuban Missile Crisis of 1962 further exacerbated strained relations and thrust Cuba into a strategically important Cold War position due to its alignment with the Soviet Union and proximity to the U.S. 

Throughout the Cold War, the Cuban economy was propped up by the USSR, while Cuban military and intelligence operatives expanded their revolutionary aims to developing countries such as Angola, Ethiopia, Nicaragua, Grenada, and Yemen. When the Berlin Wall fell in 1989, Cuba entered what became known as the "Special Period," an economic depression that forced Fidel to implement limited economic reforms, including allowing some private shops and services to emerge. At the time, the USSR accounted for about 80% of trade with Cuba.

In 2001, the U.S. Congress approved food sales to Cuba, and since then, $1.5 billion worth of agricultural products have been sold to the island. Nevertheless, consumer goods remain scarce and salaries average $15 per month. While universal healthcare and education remain the hallmarks of Fidel's legacy, many Cubans struggle to meet their monthly dietary needs. Furthermore, there are two currencies in circulation - the peso and the convertible peso - and only the latter may be exchanged for dollars. The tourist industry, which has been built up by Raúl's military, brings in 2 million foreign visitors per year - a $2 billion annual industry - yet ordinary Cubans do not have access to these resources. 

Venezuelan president Hugo Chávez, elected in 1999, has arguably replaced the USSR as Cuba's main benefactor. Chávez provides 100,000 barrels of oil per day at cut rate prices, and Cuba has in turn regularly sent teams of highly trained doctors to Venezuela to work in Chávez's social missions. 

ANALYSIS

When Fidel handed power over to Raúl in July 2006, he relinquished his role as head of state and government but remains leader of the Communist party and a member of the National Assembly. While he has not made a single public appearance since, he has remained an unmistakable presence on the island, writing dozens of "Reflections" in the pages of Granma and meeting privately with leaders such as Chávez and Brazilian president Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. 

Raúl, who has been commander-in-chief of the army since the Revolution, is seen as more pragmatic, less ideological, and certainly less charismatic than Fidel. In July of last year, he called for a national debate on the country's problems in his state of the union address. Reforms in areas such as agriculture, oil, nickel mining, and sugar cane ethanol are sorely needed to increase citizen incomes, but it is unclear whether Raúl will meet heightened expectations. Indeed, the naming of the 77 year-old Machado Ventura as Raúl's second in command, instead one of the younger Communist leaders, represents a distinct reinforcement of the status quo. 

In terms of U.S. policy, changes could be on the horizon. Of the three main presidential candidates, Sen. Barack Obama's policy stance is the most progressive. He has said he would meet without preconditions with Raúl, and has called for travel and remittances restrictions to be lifted. Sens. Hillary Clinton and John McCain largely support the status quo, with the former advocating "full diplomatic engagement." Perhaps more interestingly, three Cuban-American members of Congress from Florida--all Republicans--face difficult re-election battles this fall, with two being challenged by Cuban-American Democrats. 

In 2007, a poll conducted by Florida International University found that 65 % of Cuban Americans would support dialogue with the regime, up from 55 % in 2004. For decades, U.S.-Cuba policy has been dictated by domestic electoral concerns, yet a gradual shift of opinion in southern Florida might tilt U.S. policy towards a more sensible path. However, after nearly 50 years of an embargo that has failed to bring down the Castro regime, would Cuba welcome engagement from the U.S.?