The Surest Road to Peace
By Marifeli Pérez-Stable
The Miami Herald, April 10, 2008
On March 1, Colombia's attack on a camp set up in Ecuador by the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia (FARC) triggered the most recent Andean crisis, which Venezuela quickly joined. Troops were mobilized and ambassadors recalled. War drums beat on until March 7. At a Río Group summit, Presidents Leonel Fernández, the host in the Dominican Republic, and Hugo Chávez of Venezuela engineered a détente of sorts. Presidents Alvaro Uribe of Colombia, Rafael Correa of Ecuador and Chávez shook hands and smiled for the cameras.
Ten days later, the Organization of American States issued a resolution rejecting Colombia's military incursion while calling on all member states to combat the irregular groups that threaten regional security. The Río Group had expressed similar sentiments.
Tensions, nonetheless, are far from eased. Ecuador and Colombia have yet to restore diplomatic relations, a task now rendered more difficult by Colombia's disclosure that an Ecuadorean citizen died in the March 1 attack. Was he an innocent civilian or a FARC loyalist? At home, both Correa and Uribe are reaping political gains from the impasse.
A peacemaker for now, Chávez could switch in the blink of an eye. Colombia rescued three laptops full of files from the camp's rubble which allegedly prove Venezuelan and Ecuadorean complicity with the FARC. INTERPOL and the FBI are assisting Colombian intelligence in determining the files' accuracy and integrity. In addition, INTERPOL will soon release an independent report on their findings.
Uribe's military success against the FARC in Colombia has forced the guerrillas into Ecuador and Venezuela. Though still at 13,000, FARC ranks are thinning (from 18,000 in 2000) and desertions are mounting. Since 2003, the vicious cycle of violence and diminished state authority has been broken. The citizenry never tires of expressing a visceral repudiation of the FARC.
The United States and the European Union consider FARC a terrorist organization -- one without scruples of any kind against wantonly taking civilian lives -- which is also deeply involved in narco-trafficking. Terror and drug profits have displaced whatever political ideals motivated FARC founders 40 years ago.
All the same, Latin America's populist left prefers the FARC to the Uribe administration. By early May, we should know if Colombia's claims against Venezuela and Ecuador have heft. By then, Paraguay will have a new president-elect who, right now, looks to be the ex-bishop Fernando Lugo, a populist soul mate who'd add his voice to the choir. For fair or foul reasons, private citizens -- like the four Mexican students killed in the March 1 attack or the Argentine communist whose photograph was found at the camp -- also trek to meet the FARC.
The Río Group -- which grew out of the ContadoraEsquipulas process that brought peace to war-torn Central America in the late 1980s -- is a Latin American initiative. Uribe's success within Colombia means the conflict has spilled over the porous, hard-to-control frontiers with Venezuela and Ecuador and, thus, the FARC are, more than ever, a regional security, indeed, criminal problem. A regional negotiation may be the only way to contain the Andean crisis.
Abiding by the simple principles embodied in the fragile détente forged in the Dominican Republic and seconded by the OAS -- sovereignty and security -- is the surest road to peace. A good place to start might be Correa's suggestion of a peacekeeping force to patrol the borders.
Though the Colombian government is now in a much stronger position than the FARC, Uribe should desist of a military solution. He recently offered to free all FARC prisoners -- including those convicted of murder who had earlier been excluded -- in exchange for Ingrid Betancourt.
While FARC fortunes may improve, the contrary is more likely. Desertions, soldiers killing officers and FARC prisoners in government jails declining to go back to the jungle if freed are not good portents. Moreover, FARC may find that Venezuela and especially Ecuador may not stand unconditionally on its side if the laptop files are as damning as the Colombians claim.
Yesterday, the Ecuadorean defense minister, Wellington Sandoval, resigned unexpectedly, though it's hard to imagine it in isolation from the current impasse. The plot thickens!
In the meantime, Ingrid Betancourt, three U.S. contractors and hundreds of other hostages still await their freedom while ordinary Colombians continue to long for peace.
Marifeli Pérez-Stable is vice president for democratic governance at the Inter-American Dialogue in Washington, D.C., and a professor at Florida International University.