Colombia’s Political and Foreign Policy Outlook

By Aaron Ordower
July 31, 2008

Listen to an mp3 audio recording of this event.

The dust is still settling from the dramatic July 2nd rescue on of 15 hostages held by the FARC. Patrick Esteruelas of the Eurasia Group, Stephen Donehoo of McLarty Associates; and Adam Isacson of the Center for International Policy offered their analyses of the impact of the rescue on the future of the FARC, a potential presidential reelection, and the uncertain international agenda at a discussion at the Inter-American Dialogue on July 31, 2008.

Esteruelas raised three important concerns in evaluating Uribe’s legacy: the lack of a cohesive political coalition that will continue once Uribe leaves office, his attempts to undermine the independence of the Supreme Court and Central Bank, and the improbability of Colombia achieving an investment grade rating soon due to its combination of an undiversified economy and large fiscal deficits.

“One of the greatest things he could do as a leader is to leave as a hero,” Stephen Donehoo said, expressing his hope that President Uribe would drop his tacit effort to change the Constitution to run for a third term. “That would be a tremendous thing… [Colombia] would not have another Fujimori type.” Isacson believes that even if Uribe decides against running again, he will delay announcing his decision as to not be perceived as a “lame duck.”

 Adam Isacson described the FARC as being “in freefall” since June 2007. He stressed the need to improve reintegration efforts so that guerrillas have real opportunities to demobilize, receive job training and find economic opportunities to escape rural poverty. Patrick Esteruelas was skeptical of productive peace talks between the government and the FARC because of their “asymmetric interests.” Isacson believes the ELN will continue to resist negotiations with the government, due to their increasingly lucrative control over key drug corridors on the Pacific coast.

The panelists were optimistic that future Plan Colombia appropriations and any “peace dividend” from a weakened FARC would be allocated toward neglected priorities like guerilla reintegration, institution building, judicial reform and the internal displaced population, which is likely to surpass Sudan in 2008 as the highest number in the world.

Esteruelas and Donehoo posited that the election of Barack Obama as US president would raise the possibility of passing the US-Colombia free trade agreement before he takes office. Isacson disagreed, arguing the Congress was unlikely to take up anything controversial before the end of the year, but he did think that Obama would be better positioned to pass the agreement through a Democratic Congress than McCain.

Donehoo predicted that Colombia would maintain a strong relationship with Brazil and Peru, despite a questionable FARC presence in both countries. He argued that the diplomatic standoff with Ecuador is a political ploy by President Correa to help him pass his Constitutional referendum. After that vote, regardless of the result, he expects relations to normalize between the two neighbors.