Obama Facing Latin America

By Michael Shifter
La Tercera (Chile), November 5, 2008

Among the many explanations for why Barack Obama was elected president of the United States, one thing is for sure: Latin America played no part. True, the free trade agreement with Colombia and independence from Venezuelan oil were brought up in the debates, while McCain criticized Obama for his willingness to sit down with leaders like President Hugo Chávez. But none of that mattered in yesterday’s outcome.

What did matter, more than anything else, was the deterioration of the US economy. In the end, that issue defined the presidential race and helped the candidate who seemed most calm and reassuring in the midst of the crisis. In uncertain times, the more well-known McCain came across as the riskier choice.

Obama has already said that managing the difficult economic situation will be his top priority. It will also shape his approach to most other issues, including Latin America. Of course, it is tempting to pore through his campaign statements, Senate votes, or perceived ideology for hints about his Latin America agenda. But it a more fruitful approach is to look at how he has dealt with issues – like the economy, health care, the Iraq – that he has been forced to confront on the way to the White House. The truth is that so far Obama has not had to focus on the region.

At some point soon, Obama will look south and likely apply the same keen intelligence and pragmatic approach he has brought to other issues. Since he has never been to Latin America, he will want to learn about the region to carefully weigh policy options. He is likely to be a cautious gradualist, eschewing bold initiatives like those launched in the 1960s under John F. Kennedy. The hard reality is that Obama’s administration will have few budgetary resources at their disposal.

Obama will instinctively want to devote more attention to vigorous, high-level diplomacy in the region, which has been lacking in recent years. Obama has shown in the campaign that he understands symbolism, and no issue has greater symbolic importance in US-Latin American relations as Cuba, a major source of irritation for nearly half a century. While he has pledged to close the Guantanamo facility, Obama is also likely to move slowly but decidedly toward removing the senseless obstacles in the US-Cuba relationship, beginning with restrictions on remittances and family travel.

Obama may well open channels of communication and explore areas of cooperation with the Chávez government in Venezuela. Aware that his every word and move will be scrutinized, however, he will again be very careful. Contrary to common perception, Obama is not a dove on foreign policy, and Chavez’s alliances with Iran and Russia make a rapprochement with the United States very difficult. Tensions will not simply disappear.

Obama’s opposition to the free trade agreement with Colombia and his pledge to renegotiate NAFTA were popular in the campaign, but have caused concern in Latin America. Once he is in office, Obama will likely recognize that the US needs to be engaged globally, now more than ever. If Obama moves quickly to tackle the social agenda in the US, as he must, he may be in a stronger political position to pass trade deals.

Preoccupied with other issues, Obama will not be able to devote much personal attention to Latin America. Therefore, people he selects to direct Latin American policy will be critical. His senior foreign policy advisors, on whom Obama will rely for advice and guidance, may be announced in the coming days. With Obama determined to hit the ground running, there is no time to lose.