Change also Arrives to Latin America

By Michael Shifter
El Colombiano, November 9, 2008

Barack Obama has already made history with his election last Tuesday. But the economic crisis and foreign wars facing the United States give him the chance to go down in history books as a great president, in the mold of Abraham Lincoln, who faced an even deeper crisis and more divided nation than Obama does today.

As in the campaign, Obama will seek to unite the country by appealing – in Lincoln’s famous words – to the “better angels of our nature.” Obama, a leader of enormous intellect and discipline, is likely to be measured and pragmatic in his approach to a daunting domestic and foreign agenda. During the long campaign, Obama had to address tough issues like the Iraq War, the economy, and health care. In the process, he made it clear that he is not interested in reflexive, ideological positions and will instead try to figure out makes sense and works.

Latin American leaders who consider themselves of the “left” and expect to find an unwavering ideological ally in the White House may well be disappointed. True, Obama’s ideas differ sharply from those of George Bush on some issues, such as Cuba policy. But overall, the distinctions will likely be reflected more in the way Obama perceives and reacts to the region than his stand on specific policies.

There are some issues in particular where it would be a mistake to take Obama’s campaign statements at face value. Obama’s position toward the NAFTA trade agreement with Mexico and Canada, for example, evolved from his hardline stance in the primary to his more moderate position in the general campaign. Similarly, Obama initially said he would sit down and talk with US adversaries Raúl Castro, Hugo Chávez, and Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, but later backed down somewhat, insisting that diplomatic preparations and a specific agenda would be needed before any meeting took place.

Despite his statements on the Colombia free trade agreement during the campaign and the third debate with John McCain, Obama is likely to be cautious and pragmatic. A rejection of the pending pact with Colombia is improbable, as it would send a negative message to such a close ally and generate criticism throughout the region. This would hardly be a promising way for Obama to begin his Latin America policy.

To bring the deal to fruition, however, two conditions would likely need to be met. First, the Colombian government would have to show a stronger commitment to improving the human rights situation, particularly extrajudicial killings, paramilitary involvement in politics, and impunity for those who kill labor leaders. This commitment from the Uribe administration could come in the form of a pledge to devote even greater resources to protect vulnerable groups or a demonstration of the same take-charge attitude in cleaning up corruption scandals as it has shown in confronting the FARC. Second, Obama would have to show his domestic constituency, especially unions, that he will make health care reform a priority and provide a safety net of policies to benefit workers displaced by shifting trade patterns.

With growing budgetary pressures in the United States and an improved security outlook in Colombia, it is unrealistic to think that levels of aid to will continue at present levels. Support is likely to begin to wind down, as it would have under any US administration. Obama will be sensitive to Colombia’s security and drug-related problems and try to be helpful. As his strong expressions of support for the Uribe government after the March 1 raid against the FARC camp in Ecuador reveal, Obama is not a dove on national security.

Uribe and Obama will overlap in office for at least 18 months, and there are bound to be differences. Obama is not Bush or McCain. But the chances are good that pragmatism will prevail in the relationship. Drawing on their experiences in the gritty politics of Medellín and Chicago, the two leaders will make deals and push to advance common interests between Colombia and the United States. It remains to be seen if Obama can rise to this and other challenges confronting the United States today, but history has certainly granted him the opportunity to prove he can be a great president.