Policy improving but could be better

By Marifeli Pérez-Stable
The Miami Herald, March 26, 2009

Change is coming in U.S. Cuba policy. How much -- whether the president will simply go back to the Clinton administration's or, instead, step outside the box -- is not yet clear. The recent Omnibus Appropriations Act inches along in the right direction but falls well short of what candidate Barack Obama promised last year: "I will immediately allow unlimited family travel and remittances to the island." Still, the act gives the administration breathing room to carry out a much-needed review of Cuba policy.

For Cuban Americans and their families on the island, the elimination of the 2004 draconian strictures -- travel permitted once every three years only to immediate relatives -- brought a sigh of relief. Aunts, uncles and cousins are, once again, family, and visits can happen once every 12 months under a general license. Per diem has gone up to $179, up for from the ludicrous $50 under the old regulation.

A new Inter-American Dialogue report, "The Cuban Condition: Migration, Remittances, and its Diaspora," by Manuel Orozco, (found at www.thedialogue.org) presents the results of a survey conducted last December and January among 500 Cubans (300 in the United States, 200 in Cuba). Here are its most important findings.

Growing trade links between Havana and European countries may account for Cubans heading to Europe, especially Spain. In a 2005 survey, 81 percent of the Cubans interviewed had a relative in the United States; in 2009, 65 percent did. Migration to the United States is, nonetheless, not declining. Between 2000 and 2009, more than 200,000 Cubans were legally admitted into the United States.

While politics is always a factor, Cubans are tending to migrate for economic reasons. When asked why their relatives had migrated, the interviewees' top three reasons -- to improve family's life (38 percent), low salaries (26 percent) and to send remittances (21 percent) -- are roughly similar to those of other Caribbean and Central American migrants. Of those interviewed, 39 percent expressed a desire to migrate in the near future, a much higher proportion than elsewhere in the region, which may reflect the island's unique political situation.

Cuban migrants continue to show unflinching commitment to the families left behind. Thus far, the recession has not affected remittances. Survey data, however, highlight an interesting trend. Whereas in 2005 81 percent received remittances from the United States, 53 percent did in 2009. Remittances from Spain nearly doubled, from 12 percent in 2005 to 23 percent today.

U.S. transfers, however, were slightly higher ($200), though the frequency (eight times per year) was the same. About 40 percent of U.S. remittances were sent through informal means, that is, outside the law. Almost all U.S.-based Cubans interviewed say they will continue to remit for more than six years. In this aspect, Cubans are also behaving like other migrants: the longer people remit, the more steadfast their commitment. "The Cuban Condition" estimates the U.S. remittance flow to be at least $830 million a year.

What Cubans on the island do with the remittances is also interesting. Thirty-six percent save an average $500 a year. Most do not have a bank account. More than a third hope to use their savings to start a business, at least double the percentage of remittance receivers in the Dominican Republic, Nicaragua and Honduras. A quarter of the Cubans use their savings to meet basic necessities, about 50 percent higher than Dominicans, Nicaraguans and Hondurans.

Natural entrepreneurs

"The Cuban Condition" reminds us of the human beings who bear the costs of U.S. policy and, especially, the Cuban government's intransigence. Were U.S. policy to eliminate all restrictions on family travel and remittances, the benefits would immediately be felt in the lives of many ordinary Cubans. Havana -- whose foreign ministry has yet to issue an official comment to the Omnibus Act -- is likely hoping nothing else changes regarding family travel.

Cubans are natural entrepreneurs. Even in the face of daunting obstacles, those on the island still save to have their own businesses, and the Cuban government is terrified of them. Yet, there is no other way for Cuba's leaders to improve living standards. Either unleash Cubans' entrepreneurial energies or be prepared to pay the price for continued intransigence.