Atmospherics Dominate Cordial Summit

By Michael Shifter and Dan Joyce
Oxford Analytica, April 27, 2009

ANALYSIS: The regional harmony on display at the Fifth Summit of the Americas, held in Trinidad and Tobago on April 17-19, is somewhat superficial, and fundamental policy differences remain:

• Show of solidarity. The Summit revealed the dramatic improvement in the tone of regional relations under US President Barack Obama. Even leaders generally hostile to US policy were unable to sustain criticism of the new US president. Nicaraguan President Daniel Ortega's speech decrying US imperialism was careful to absolve Obama of responsibility for past US transgressions.
  
  
• Elusive consensus. Nevertheless, deep divisions remain within the region on numerous substantive policy issues. The clearest example of these differences was the inability of the Summit organisers to secure a consensus even on the notably anodyne final declaration, primarily due to objections to the exclusion of Cuba. Even the disagreement over Cuba masked other, fundamental tensions within the region, including the environmental and humanitarian consequences of biofuels, responsibility for and responses to the global economic crisis, and the lingering controversy over free trade.
  
  
• Obama pragmatism. The Obama administration was able to head off potential controversies by preparing the groundwork for the Summit well -- announcing the closing of the Guantanamo detention facility, shoring up relations with Mexico and slightly relaxing parts of the embargo on Cuba. Rather than dividing up friends and enemies, Obama looks at the region in terms of strategic US interests and a penchant for multilateralism, which explains his early focus on drug violence in Mexico and closer relations with Brazil as well as conversations with both Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez and Colombian President Alvaro Uribe. However, the perception of over-friendly relations with anti-US leaders came at a cost at home, and Obama will likely proceed cautiously in any future overtures to Cuba, Venezuela, Bolivia and Nicaragua.

Next steps. The Summit forced the Obama administration to focus on Latin America seriously for the first time, and raised the possibility of collaboration on many issues:

1. Economic crisis. Coming on the heels of the G20 meeting in London, there was little discussion of the economic crisis, primarily because the five hemispheric members felt they had already addressed the issue. Some leaders, notably Ecuador's Rafael Correa, expressed frustration that there was no discussion of the causes of the financial collapse, the impact on the region, or input on possible responses. Economy ministers from across the hemisphere will meet in Chile in July to review these issues, but there is little indication that there will be consensus on what action to take or how to coordinate.
   
   The United States made several financial commitments at or immediately before the Summit, such as creating the Microfinance Growth Fund for the hemisphere and the Energy and Climate Partnership of the Americas, as well as expanding the lending power of the Inter-American Development Bank and the IMF. Following a severe reduction of its profile, the IMF appears to be making a comeback in the region, with 100.0 billion dollars in additional US funding, Brazil's pledge to loan 4.5 billion dollars, and requests for credit lines of 47.0 billion for Mexico and 10.0 billion for Colombia.
   
   
2. Cuba. Despite intensifying calls to lift the US embargo, such a shift does not appear imminent. It is unclear whether Havana is prepared to negotiate sensitive issues like political prisoners and human rights, which are seen as preconditions for Washington to consider dropping the embargo. Following the loosening of travel, remittance and communications restrictions on Cuban-Americans, the Obama administration now believes the ball is in Cuba's court and will carefully gauge reactions from Havana and Miami before making any significant further moves. The next step may come as soon as the early June General Assembly of the Organization of American States; Secretary-General Jose Miguel Insulza has voiced support for allowing Cuba to participate in the organisation again.
   
   
3. Venezuela and Bolivia. Chavez walked a fine line during the Summit, telling Obama, "I want to be your friend," while giving him a book highly critical of US imperialism, and condemning the Cuba embargo while designating an ambassador to the United States. The State Department hailed Venezuela's move as a "positive development," saying it would work to reciprocate. Restoring ambassadors would improve bilateral relations, but there will be no real bilateral warming in the absence of policy shifts in Caracas, such as moderating support for Iran.
   
   Bolivian President Evo Morales was less receptive to Obama, denouncing US meddling in Bolivian affairs and implying the United States was involved in destabilising the country and an alleged assassination attempt against him. The Summit was the perfect opportunity for Morales to renew relations with Washington, and his failure to do so indicates he considers anti-US rhetoric to be politically useful even with Obama in office. Morales has expressed openness to reinstating ambassadors, but major progress in US-Bolivia relations will be slow and difficult, even after presidential elections in December.
   
   
4. Trade. While less prominent, the issue of trade is no less divisive than at the highly conflictive Mar del Plata Summit in 2005 -- in fact, the global recession may increase protectionist pressures. Forging new agreements in the near term is unlikely, but Obama has signaled an interest in following through on passing signed pacts with Colombia and Panama. Congressional opposition and conflicting priorities will complicate passage, but early signals that he is working on the agreements will help smooth relations with Colombia and Panama and ease concerns in the region that the United States is unreliable or resorting to protectionism.
   
   
5. Mexico and Brazil. Leading up to the Summit, the Obama administration devoted significant attention to Mexico:

   • Mexico has become a top priority for the United States, but whether this will lead to sustained security collaboration, rethinking of drug policy, or progress on immigration may depend on the political environment in the US Congress.
     
     
   • Likewise, Obama recognised the opportunity to work with Brazil on energy, the environment and multilateral diplomacy, but the high tariff on Brazilian ethanol imports is unlikely to be lifted soon, which will impede a deeper bilateral relationship.

   Although these two countries stayed under the radar at the Summit, they will be the key regional partners for Washington going forward.

CONCLUSION: Unlike previous summits driven by a single issue -- like the Free Trade Area of the Americas in 1994 or the Inter-American Democratic Charter in 2001 -- this Summit succeeded in calming regional relations and opening possibilities on several topics. Priorities will depend on the attention the Obama administration devotes to the region, as well as the interest of Latin American countries in collaborating. The fact that regional leaders finally see US policy moving in the right direction will reduce -- but not overcome -- the mistrust that has hampered a constructive relationship in the past.