Reflections of 2010

By Michael Shifter
El Colombiano, December 21, 2010

Una versión de este articulo en español está disponible aquí.

In 2010, the high point in the hemisphere was the rescue of the trapped Chilean miners.  It was a story that featured remarkable spirit and solidarity and captured the world’s attention.  The low point was the devastating earthquake in Haiti, with some 250,000 dead, and seemingly endless tragedies in that country.   The unrelenting criminality in Mexico – ever more savage and increasingly spreading south through Central America -- has been sobering.  
 
Further south, in South America, the year was highlighted by two impressive election processes, in Colombia and Brazil.   In Colombia there was an admirably orderly transition, from Alvaro Uribe to Juan Manuel Santos, with the right measures of continuity and change.   February 26, 2010, the day Colombia's Constitutional Court ruled on another reelection for Uribe, will go down in history.   It proved significant not only for Colombia's democracy but also had repercussions throughout Latin America. 
 
In Brazil, political continuity, backed by sustained economic and social progress, is notable.   As Lula's handpicked successor, Dilma Rousseff has so far assembled a team that promises pretty much more of the same.  Brazilians are optimistic and confident, and are more defiant on the global stage.   Their role in South American affairs is increasingly influential and will probably remain so. 
 
Both countries witnessed some interesting changes in their relations with Washington.  Santos quickly made it clear that his foreign policy priorities were focused on repairing ties with Venezuela and Ecuador and in pursuing new relationships, especially with China.  Colombia's diversification strategy means less time spent in Washington pressing for passage of the free trade deal.
 
In contrast, relations between Washington and Brasilia were strained in 2010.  There was strong disagreement about the best approach regarding Iran's nuclear program, and also differences on how to deal with Honduras and other Latin American issues.  The Obama administration is hoping to turn a new page with the Rousseff administration. 
 
Relations between Washington and Caracas are just as tense today as they have been in recent years.  They are unlikely to get better in light of the new Republican majority that will take control of the House of Representatives in January.   Tougher rhetoric from Washington against Chavez -- his relations with Tehran, tolerance if not support of the FARC, and his autocratic moves at home -- should be expected.    Venezuela's economic and security crises are bound to deepen.  The result could be more contested, even turbulent, politics. 
 
In 2011 there will be key elections, first in Peru and then in Argentina.  There are signs that moderate centrism is not only gaining ground in Colombia and Brazil (and Chile, where some analysts regard Sebastian Piñera, elected in 2010, as heading another Concertacion government), but in these countries as well.  Ollanta Humala, the Chavez-backed candidate in 2006 who nearly won the presidency, is falling in the polls.    In Argentina, Cristina Fernandez appears to be taking steps towards the center and, with the economy growing strong, seems to be well-positioned for reelection.

Next year political discussion will be dominated by the 2012 presidential elections in Mexico, Venezuela and the United States.  Mexico's worsening security situation could prepare the ground for the return of the PRI, after two consecutive PAN governments.   Chavez will try for another six-year term – which, if successful, would extend his rule to 19 years -- and Obama will go for another four years, which is the constitutional limit.  After a loss in Congressional elections in November, Obama seems to be following Latin America’s formula for political success and is moving towards the center.